Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth outlook downgraded — World Bank

The World Bank has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 down to an average of 4.1 percent, from its previous estimate of 4.4 percent made in October 2025. The projection for 2027 has also been lowered to 4.2 percent, with an anticipated growth rate of 4.3 percent for 2028.

In its April 2026 Africa Economic Update report titled “Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,” the World Bank indicated that Nigeria’s growth outlook benefits from more stable macroeconomic conditions and a slow recovery in investment.

The report highlighted that the services sector, particularly ICT, finance, and real estate, will be the main contributors to growth, while agriculture and industry may see slower progress due to structural issues.

Inflation in Nigeria is expected to decrease from 23 percent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026, with further reductions to 10.7 percent by 2028, driven primarily by tighter policies and improved supply conditions.

The report cautioned that while rising oil prices could enhance government revenue, global uncertainties, security threats, fluctuations in commodity prices, and policy instability leading up to the 2027 elections could undermine business confidence.

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For sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, the World Bank projects an economic growth rate of 4.1 percent for 2026, indicating that forecasts for numerous key economies—such as Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal, South Africa, and Zambia—have been downgraded.

The report noted that about 60 percent of the region’s countries (29 out of 47) experienced similar downward revisions in their growth forecasts for 2026.

Despite the lowered projections, the bank observed that effective inflation management, stronger currencies, and declining food and fuel prices have bolstered private consumption and investment.

However, it warned that escalating global tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to increased energy prices, disrupt trade, and create new inflationary  pressures.